In 2026, global economic growth will slow to 3.0%. Driven by geopolitical factors, energy transition, and technological changes, the casting industry will enter a new stage of green, intelligent, and high-end development, ending the era of extensive growth.
Significant Divergence in Demand Structure: Traditional sectors such as gasoline-powered vehicles and general machinery will experience stagnant growth, leading to price competition in the general casting market. New energy vehicles, aerospace, and medical devices will become the main drivers of growth. Demand for new energy vehicle three-electric systems and integrated die-casting parts is expected to increase by over 50% year-on-year; aerospace special alloy castings will increase by 8% annually; and medical device castings will increase by 15% annually, further expanding into high-value-added markets due to the application of 3D printing technology.
Accelerated Reshuffling on the Supply Side: Stricter environmental standards will force the exit of energy-intensive small and medium-sized production capacity, increasing industry concentration. Leading companies will reduce compliance costs and enhance ESG competitiveness through green technologies such as waste sand recycling, waste heat recovery, and electric furnace replacement. The widespread adoption of intelligent casting will promote “data-driven” production, with digital twins and industrial internet applications achieving a 20% increase in efficiency and a 15% decrease in defect rates.
The regional landscape is stratified: the Asia-Pacific region accounts for over 65% of production capacity, with the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing urban clusters in China consolidating their core manufacturing positions, while production capacity is gradually shifting to the central and western regions. Europe and the United States are focusing on high-performance aluminum alloys and complex structural components, strengthening their high-end advantages; Southeast Asia, leveraging its cost advantages, has seen an average annual production growth rate exceeding 8%, becoming an emerging growth pole.
The value chain is being reassessed: Increased volatility in raw material prices is prompting companies to enhance supply chain resilience through diversified procurement and the utilization of recycled metals. The market is shifting from “pricing by weight” to “pricing by quality,” with high-tech products such as complex thin-walled components and integrated modules commanding significant premiums, driving value leaps in the industry despite production constraints.